Drishti Pillai and Samantha Artiga - KFF
Published: Nov 21, 2024

https://www.kff.org/racial-equity-and-health-policy/issue-brief/expected-immigration-policies-under-a-second-trump-administration-and-their-health-and-economic-implications/

Introduction
Immigration was a central campaign issue during the 2024 Presidential election with President-elect Trump vowing to take strict action to restrict both lawful and unlawful immigration into the U.S. Such actions would have stark impacts on the health and well-being of immigrant families as well as major economic consequences for the nation. As of 2023, there were 47.1 million immigrants residing in the U.S., and one in four children had an immigrant parent.1 Increased immigration boosts federal revenues and lowers the national deficit through immigrants’ participation in the country’s economy, workforce, and through billions of dollars in tax contributions.

This issue brief discusses key changes to immigration policies that may take place under the second Trump administration based on his previous record and campaign statements, and their implications. President-elect Trump has indicated plans to restrict and eliminate legal immigration pathways, including humanitarian protections, and deport millions of immigrants, which would likely lead to separation of families, negative mental and physical impacts for immigrant families, and negative consequences on the nation’s workforce and economy.

Expected Policy Changes

Elimination of Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) Program

The future of the DACA program remains uncertain due to pending litigation, and President-elect Trump has indicated plans to eliminate it, which would lead to over half a million DACA recipients losing protected status. DACA was originally established via executive action in June 2012 to protect certain undocumented immigrants who were brought to the U.S. as children from removal proceedings and receive authorization to work for renewable two-year periods. During his prior term, President-elect Trump sought to end DACA but was blocked by the Supreme Court in 2020. The Biden administration issued regulations in 2022 to preserve DACA protections. In September 2023, a district court in Texas ruled the DACA program unlawful, preventing the Biden administration from implementing the new regulations while the case awaits a decision in the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals. Under pending court rulings, while the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is accepting first-time DACA requests, it is unable to process them. DHS is continuing to process DACA renewal requests and related requests for employment authorization. After the attempt to end DACA failed in 2020, the Trump administration said that it would try again to eliminate DACA protections, and, if the pending court ruling finds the program unlawful, the administration is unlikely to appeal the decision. There are over half a million active DACA recipients, a majority of whom are working and many of whom have U.S.-born children, who could be at risk of deportation if the program is eliminated.

A recent health coverage expansion to DACA recipients also is subject to pending litigation and would, if eliminated, leave many DACA recipients without access to an affordable coverage option. In May 2024, the Biden administration published regulations to extend eligibility for Affordable Care Act (ACA) Marketplace coverage with premium and cost-sharing subsidies to DACA recipients, who were previously ineligible for federally funded health coverage options. The regulation became effective November 1, 2024, allowing for enrollment during the 2025 Open Enrollment Period. In August 2024, a group of states filed a lawsuit against the federal government alleging that the ACA Marketplace coverage expansion for DACA recipients violates the Administrative Procedure Act. The case is currently under review at a district court in North Dakota and a decision is expected in the coming months. Elimination of the expansion could leave the nearly 100,000 uninsured DACA recipients it is estimated to cover without an affordable coverage option.

Changes to Public Charge Policy

President-elect Trump could reinstate changes to public charge policy that he made during his first term, which led to increased fears and misinformation among immigrant families about accessing programs and services, including health coverage. Under longstanding immigration policy, federal officials can deny entry to the U.S. or adjustment to lawful permanent resident (LPR) status (i.e., a “green card”) to someone they determine to be a public charge. During his prior term, President-elect Trump issued regulations in 2019 that broadened the scope of programs that the federal government would consider in public charge determinations to newly include the use of non-cash assistance programs like Medicaid and the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP). Research suggests that these changes increased fears among immigrant families about participating in programs and seeking services, including health coverage and care. Prior KFF analysis estimated that the 2019 changes to public charge policy could have led to decreased coverage for between 2 to 4.7 million Medicaid or CHIP enrollees who were noncitizens or citizens living in a mixed immigration status family. The Biden administration rescinded these changes. However, as of 2023, a majority of immigrant adults said in a KFF survey that they were “not sure” about public charge rules, and roughly one in ten (8%), rising to about one in four (27%) of likely undocumented immigrant adults, said they have avoided applying for assistance with food, housing, or health care in the past year due to immigration-related fears (Figure 1). As of November 2024, President-elect Trump has not indicated whether his administration plans to reinstate his first term changes to public charge policy.

Expanded Interior Enforcement Actions

President-elect Trump has indicated that his administration plans to carry out mass detentions and deportations of millions of immigrants, including long-term residents, which could lead to family separations and negative mental and physical health consequences. President-elect Trump has stated that he will declare a national emergency and use the U.S. military to carry out mass deportations of tens of millions of undocumented immigrants residing in the U.S., many of whom have been living and working in the country for decades. Such a policy could lead to family separations as well as mass detentions, which can have negative implications for the mental health and well-being of immigrant families and also put their physical health at risk. Tom Homan, who was the director of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) during the first Trump administration and has been selected as the incoming administration’s “border czar”, has said that it is possible to carry out mass deportations without separating families by deporting an entire family unit together, even if the child may be a U.S. citizen. As was the case during his first term, he may also carry out workplace raids as part of mass deportation efforts. Research shows that such raids can lead to family separations, poor physical and mental health outcomes for immigrant families, negative birth and educational outcomes for the children of immigrants, and financial hardship due to employment losses. Prior KFF research shows that restrictive immigration policies implemented during the first Trump administration, including detention and deportation led to increased fears and stress among immigrant families and negatively impacted the health and well-being of children of immigrants, most of whom are U.S. citizens.

Mass deportations could also negatively impact the U.S. workforce and economy, where immigrants make significant contributions. Immigrants have similar rates of employment as their U.S.-born counterparts and play outsized roles in certain occupations such as agriculture, construction, and health care. Research has found that immigrants do not displace U.S.-born workers and help foster job growth through entrepreneurship and the consumption of goods and services. Further, federal data show that unemployment rates for U.S.-born workers have not decreased between 2022 and 2023 and have remained similar to those for immigrant workers. In addition, immigrants, including undocumented immigrants, pay billions of dollars in federal, state, and local taxes each year. Mass deportation of immigrants could lead to workforce shortages in key sectors which could have negative economic consequences including an increase in the cost of essential goods such as groceries. Vice President-elect Vance has stated that immigrants are responsible for the U.S. housing crisis. While some studies show a link between immigration and rising housing costs, in general, economists are skeptical of immigration being a primary driver. Mass deportation of immigrants could also worsen housing shortages since immigrants make up a significant share of construction workers. Workplace raids can exacerbate existing labor shortages and have a negative impact on the local economies of the communities where they take place. Further, research shows that without the contributions undocumented immigrants make to the Medicare Trust Fund, it would reach insolvency earlier, and that undocumented immigrants result in a net positive effect on the financial status of Social Security. There also is likely to be a significant cost to taxpayers for the government to carry out large-scale detention and deportations.

Ending Birthright Citizenship

President-elect Trump has stated that he will sign an executive order to end birthright citizenship for the children of some immigrants despite it being a guaranteed right under the U.S. Constitution, which would negatively impact the health care workforce and economy. This proposed action would limit access to health coverage and care for the children of immigrants since they may not have lawful status. It could also have broader ramifications for the nation’s workforce and economy, potentially exacerbating existing worker shortages, including in health care. KFF analysis of federal data shows that adult children of immigrants have slightly better educational and economic outcomes than adult children of U.S.-born parents and make up twice the share of physicians, surgeons, and other health care practitioners as compared to their share of the population (13% vs. 6%) (Figure 2). Other research also has found that children of immigrants contribute more in taxes on average than their parents or the rest of the U.S.-born population, and that their fiscal contributions exceed their costs associated with health care, education, and other social services.

Reinstatement of “Remain in Mexico” Policy

President-elect Trump has stated that he will reinstate the “Remain in Mexico” border policy and that he may use military spending to carry out stricter border enforcement, which would leave an increased number of asylum seekers facing unsafe conditions at the border. The first Trump administration implemented Migrant Protection Protocols, often referred to as the “Remain in Mexico” policy, in 2019. Under this policy, asylum seekers were required to remain in Mexico, often in unsafe conditions, while they awaited their immigration court hearings. The Biden administration ended this policy in 2022, following some legal challenges, although it implemented a series of increasingly restrictive limits on asylum eligibility in 2023 and 2024 in response to a high number of border encounters. President-elect Trump said he plans to reinstate the Migrant Protection Protocols. He also has indicated that he will deploy the National Guard, as well as active duty military personnel, if needed, to the U.S.-Mexico border, although details of the plan remain unclear. Heightened military presence at the border can lead to increased fears among immigrant families living in border areas and using part of the military budget for border security could face legal challenges.

Restrictions on Humanitarian Protections

President-elect Trump said he plans to significantly limit the entry of humanitarian migrants into the U.S. during his second term by restricting refugee limits, shutting down the CBP One application for asylum seekers, and eliminating Temporary Protected Status (TPS) designations for immigrants from some countries.  During his first term, President Trump set the annual refugee admissions ceiling at its lowest levels, ranging from 50,000 in 2017 to a historic low of 18,000 in 2020. The Biden administration increased the limit to 65,000 in 2021, a level close to the annual ceilings prior to the first Trump term, and further increased the limits in 2022 and 2024 in response to humanitarian concerns. It is likely that President-elect Trump will reduce the admissions ceiling for refugees in his second term. The President-elect has also said that he will close the CBP One application created by the Biden administration which allows asylum seekers to seek lawful entry to the U.S. by making an interview appointment with the DHS. While there have been implementation challenges with the CBP One application, shutting down the application could lead to “mass cancellation of appointments” and possibly an increase in attempts to cross the border outside of ports of entry. President-elect Trump also has indicated that he will roll back TPS designations for some immigrants, including those from Haiti. TPS designations protect immigrants from countries deemed unsafe by the DHS from deportation and provide them with employment authorization but do not provide a pathway to long-term residency or citizenship. As of March 2024, over 860,000 immigrants from 16 countries were protected by TPS. Loss of TPS would put people at risk for deportation, which could contribute to family separation which in turn can have negative impacts on the mental and physical health of immigrant families, and broader negative consequences for the workforce and economy.

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